原创翻译:杏鑫娱乐 http://www.syjcdp.com 翻译:星际圣母 转载请注明出处



The U.S. economy is particularly sensitive to events like the coronavirus outbreak, said Austan Goolsbee, the former chair of economic advisers under President Barack Obama.

奥巴马总统的前经济顾问团主席奥斯坦·古斯比说,美国经济面对像冠状病毒这样的事件特别敏感,

“The U.S. economy is so much more intensively driven by these personal services that are exactly the kinds of things that dry up when people get afraid,” he said on Yahoo Finance’s YFi PM.

美国经济在极大程度上是由个人服务业驱动的,当人们陷入恐慌的时候,这正是那种会缩水的领域。

If the impact is as bad in the U.S. as it was in China, Goolsbee said the hit to the U.S. would be a “fair bit worse.” For example, the travel, sports, and entertainment industries are 10 times bigger in the U.S. than in China.

古斯比说,如果病毒对美国造成的影响跟中国一样大,美国受到的打击会“更沉重一些”。比如,美国的旅行、运动和娱乐产业比中国的大10倍。

“That just puts the focus back on: you’ve got to slow the spread of this disease,” Goolsbee said. “You’ve got to engage in the very best public health you can because the downside is really that bad.”

古斯比说:“这让我们把注意力放回到疫情上,你得减缓病毒的扩散,你得尽最大可能保障公众健康。因为疫情风险真的很大”



“A virus-induced recession strikes me as pretty different than a financial crisis-induced recession,” he said.

他说:“疫情引发的衰退和经融危机引发的衰退对经济的打击非常不同。”

Goolsbee’s point is that many of the tactics of monetary or fiscal policy to combat a problem may not work. While it might make sense for the Fed to provide stimulus if there’s a shock to demand — when people get spooked and stay at home — that might not do much.

古斯比的观点是,很多应对经济问题的货币策略或财政政策可能行不通。联邦政府采取刺激措施可能会有用,但是如果需求受到了冲击,当人们因为受到惊吓而不敢出门,刺激就没什么用了。

“If I gave you a $500 tax cut or I reduce the interest rate by some amount, if you are not leaving your house for three weeks, that’s not going to make you leave your house for three weeks,” said Goolsbee. “You’re going to say, great, let’s put that in the bank.”

古斯比说:“如果我给你减税500美元或降低一些利率,若你决定三个星期不出门,那这样的刺激是不会让你在这三个星期出门的。你会说,太好了,我们把这些钱放到银行里吧”

For now, Goolsbee says that while the Federal Reserve cuts may be a good move, the real action must be done to slow the spread and develop treatments and vaccines as fast as possible.

古斯比说,联储局目前的降息可能是个好措施,但是现在必须付出实际行动减少疫情扩撒,尽快研究出对抗新冠病毒的疗法和疫苗。

“All of that is critically important,” he said. “Otherwise, I fear a sharp recession.”

“这个极其重要,”他说。“否则,恐怕经济会急剧衰退。”